Oh so nice!

Well done Google! Google celebrating the birthday of my favorite artist – Norman Rockwell:

I adore Rockwell’s warm, feel-good, photo-realistic paintings. Those paintings are a hundred times better than the photographs that I get with my state-of-the-art Nikon!

Climate Change – a Religion?

Curiouser and curiouser. This invocation of faith in the discussion on global warming:

“There are huge problems on climate change. Climate change is not limited to Himalayan glaciers. Rational people will continue to repose faith in IPCC,” he said.

- Pachauri admits mistake in IPCC report, rules out resignation, The Times of India, 23 Jan 2010

And here is another Indian repeating Pachauri’s mantra:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has goofed up so badly on its Himalayan glacier melting forecast that it’s close to losing credibility among the people. But Tata Energy Research Institute fellow and climate negotiator Prodipto Ghosh hits back: “If you don’t trust scientists, who else will you trust?”

People are losing faith in climate science and scientists. There is also talk about misappropriation of funds and a lobby that is pushing such sweeping reports on climate impacts.

If you don’t trust a scientist, who else will you trust? Science must continue. People have to keep the faith. Scientific problems cannot be resolved by lobbies shouting at each other. Scientific papers will be peerreviewed, debated and published.

- Due diligence was not done, admits scientist, Times of India, 27 Jan, 2010

I rather liked this gentleman when he, as an Indian negotiator at Copenhagen, threatened to pullout objecting to India announcing voluntary, unilateral emission reduction targets [Jairam persuades negotiators to join climate talks]; but now I am not so sure. Good negotiator he may be, but scientist he is not.

Quite a shame really that these gentlemen are Indians. Their lack of understanding of the western scientific approach is very visible; and their confusion between science and faith-based religion is positively embarrassing.

Here is a succinct statement about the difference between science and religion:

The fourth plenary speaker was John Theon, a retired senior atmospheric scientist from NASA…He was particularly incisive about the way in which models are misused. “Too many modellers tune their models”, he said, “if you have the answer before you begin, you can play with the model to get what you want”. Dr Theon concluded: “Only religion requires faith in its believers. Science cannot be based on faith. It must be based on facts alone”.

- Heartland-2: Session 3, Quadrant Online, March 11, 2009

The Voodoo Science of Climate Change

The next scene in the final act (hopefully) of the global warming hysteria unfolded today.

Here is what the IPCC report has to say about catastrophic losses (which is derived from insurance claims data):

Preliminary evidence for changes in human systems:

• Damages due to droughts and floods: changes in some socio-economic systems had been related to persistent low rainfall in the Sahelian region of Africa and to increased precipitation extremes in North America. Most of the increase in damages is due to increased wealth and exposure. However, part of the increase in losses was attributed to climate change, in particular to more frequent and intense extreme weather events in some regions.

- 1.1.2 Summary of observed changes in  the third assessment report, Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and vulnerability, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

The last sentence is alarmist and most damning.

Interestingly, this last sentence was not exactly substantiated by the elaboration further on in the report:

A global catalogue of catastrophe losses was constructed (Muir Wood et al., 2006), normalised to account for changes that have resulted from variations in wealth and the number and value of properties located in the path of the catastrophes, using the method of Landsea et al. (1999). The global survey was considered largely comprehensive from 1970 to 2005 for countries and regions (Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, the USA, Caribbean, Central America, China, India and the Philippines) that had centralised catastrophe loss information and included a broad range of peril types: tropical cyclone, extra-tropical cyclone, thunderstorm, hailstorm, wildfire and flood, and that spanned high- and low-latitude areas.

Once the data were normalised, a small statistically significant trend was found for an increase in annual catastrophe loss since 1970 of 2% per year (see Supplementary Material Figure SM1.1). However, for a number of regions, such as Australia and India, normalised losses show a statistically significant reduction since 1970. The significance of the upward trend is influenced by the losses in the USA and the Caribbean in 2004 and 2005 and is arguably biased by the relative wealth of the USA, particularly relative to India.

- 1.3.8.4 Economic and Insurance Losses, Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and vulnerability, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

Now, Mr. Muir Wood, who is quoted above,  is questioning the interpretation of his data:

Dr Muir-Wood attacked the way his evidence was used. He said: ‘The idea that catastrophes are rising in cost partly because of climate change is completely misleading. We could not tell if it was just an association or cause and effect. ‘Also, our study included 2004 and 2005 which was when there were some major hurricanes. If you took those years away then the significance of climate change vanished.’

- ANOTHER climate change blunder: First it’s melting glaciers, now natural disaster claim is debunked, Mail Online, 24 Jan 2010

Reading all  this, I come to the conclusion that whoever wrote Sec 1.3.8.4 was pretty reasonable. They acknowledge the effect of 2004 & 2005 hurricanes and make no positive claims that climate change caused increased catastrophic losses.  Whoever wrote Sec 1.1.2, they were the climate change evangelists! They created a strong linkage out of nowhere!

This is definitive voodoo science!

The Beginning of the End of Global Warming Hysteria (hopefully)

For the first time in its history, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — a panel of 2,500 of the best climate scientists in the world — accepted on Wednesday that it had made a huge goof-up in its fourth assessment report on climate change and withdrew its assertion that the Himalayan glaciers ran the risk of being wiped out by 2035.

- IPCC retracts 2035 alarm on Himalayan glacier melt, The Times of India, 20 Jan 2010

Not surprising at all. The level of hysteria that has been whipped up around climate change / global warming (starting with the famous Al Gore Powerpoints) was never consistent with the measured tone of scientific research. It was always clear that there was something else going on here and whatever it was, it was never science.

Meet the world’s top destroyer of the environment. It is not the car, or the plane,or even George Bush: it is the cow.

A United Nations report has identified the world’s rapidly growing herds of cattle as the greatest threat to the climate, forests and wildlife. And they are blamed for a host of other environmental crimes, from acid rain to the introduction of alien species, from producing deserts to creating dead zones in the oceans, from poisoning rivers and drinking water to destroying coral reefs.

- Cow ‘emissions’ more damaging to planet than CO₂from cars, The Independent, 10 Dec 2006

Such shallow claims were merely alarmist in nature and clearly over simplify the immense complexities of our planet’s ecosystem. This is, by definition, pseudo-science. Add to that these statements that all Himalayan glaciers will melt  by 2035, and there is nothing more left to say about these chaps.

Unfortunately, the guy who seems to be leading the global warming charge is an Indian (his partner-in-Nobel Prize Al Gore has dropped off the global warming map after his initial blitzkrieg), and he seems to be brazenly unconcerned about this whole thing:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chairman R K Pachauri on Saturday termed as a “human error” the findings in its report about melting of Himalayan glaciers, but ruled out his resignation on the issue.

Pachauri, who is under attack from various quarters over the IPCC’s 2007 report that said the glaciers in the Himalayas will disappear by 2035 due to global warming, said the mistake was “unfortunate”.

“I have no intention to of resigning from my position. I have a task. I am going to complete the Fifth Assessment Report,” he told reporters here.

…

“There are huge problems on climate change. Climate change is not limited to Himalayan glaciers. Rational people will continue to repose faith in IPCC,” he said.

- Pachauri admits mistake in IPCC report, rules out resignation, The Times of India, 23 Jan 2010

Pachauri’s tone is exactly the same as those of Indian babu’s who pretty much are not accountable to anybody for anything. It completely lacks the sense of rigor that is the hallmark of Western science.

And his statements about “rational people” reposing “faith” in IPCC is amazingly revealing of the man and his mind. He first invokes the “Emperor’s New Clothes” syndrome to hide his nakedness and then proceeds to take science to the same plane as religion by invoking faith in lieu of scientific rigor!

And there are accusations floating around that this man is running a thriving business fueled by the global warming scare his own IPCC generates! [Questions over business deals of UN climate change guru Dr Rajendra Pachauri]
With such a man as its spokesperson, the global warming campaign  has pretty much lost all credibility.

Which is not a bad thing at all!

Klan Toon

A topical cartoon hits home.

The Australian government is riled by one single cartoon even as they continue to advice India not to become hysterical after a series of violent attacks on Indian students in Melbourne!

MELBOURNE, Australia — Australia has condemned as “deeply offensive” an Indian newspaper cartoon that depicted an Australian police officer as a member of the Ku Klux Klan…

The cartoon, which bears the caption “Indian killed in Australia,” shows a figure in a white robe wearing a police badge. The figure is saying, “We are yet to ascertain the nature of the crime.”

Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard, a Melbourne resident, said Friday the cartoon suggested Australia was not doing enough to solve the murder.

“Any suggestion of that kind is deeply, deeply offensive to the police officers involved and I would absolutely condemn the making of a comment like that,” Gillard told reporters.

Police union leader Greg Davies, secretary of Victoria’s Police Association, said the cartoon was “highly offensive” to homicide detectives.

“Cartoons in Australia are normally done by people who are either clever or witty and this one’s neither,” he said.

It is instructive to compare this cartoon against that of Danish cartoonists in 2005 that depict the many “faces” of Prophet Mohammad. When the Muslim community got riled, they were lectured by the West on freedom of press, freedom of speech, open society etc.

Now we have to see if Australia subscribes to the very same freedom of press, freedom of expression etc. which the Western world holds so dear (when it suits them).

But then those of us who follow cricket know very well how one-sided Australia has always been. Sledging by Australians is simply “playing a hard game” but if an Indian gives back as good as he gets, that is “racism” [Aussies "Leaving it all on the field"]!

And usually a cartoon really hurts only when it gets very very close to the truth!

GenNext India

Instructions from my nine year old son to my wife:

Any Takers?

I received this rather interesting email on my Windows Live account.

DEAR Kumar,

I AM MAXWELL POKU, A HEIR TO THE THRONE OF THE LATE RULER  OF THE ASHANTI KINGDOM, CHIEF [DR] NANA  MATTHEW JACOB ADUSEI POKU WHO DIED IN FEBRUARY  2009.AMONG ALL THE  HEIRS  TO THE  THRONE, I’VE BEEN  THE CLOSEST  TO  HIM  WHEN HE WAS  ALIVE.

MY FATHER, THE KING, RECEIVES A MONTHLY GIFT  FROM THE  LOCAL  MINERS IN OUR  COMMUNITY  IN  A  FORM  OF  GOLD. HE SELLS IT TO SOME FOREIGNERS AFTERWARD IN RETUNE  FOR  CASH.BEFORE HIS DEATH, I COLLECTED THREE BOXES OF GOLD WEIGHING ABOUT A 100 KILOGRAMS EACH FROM THE  LOCAL  MINES  FOR  HIM AND   KEPT  IT  IN  HIS  SAFE  BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR US,  HE  DIED AFTERWARD  WITHOUT  SELLING THE  GOLD. IMMEDIATELY,

I  RUSHED TO  THE SAFE WHERE THE BOXES OF GOLD WERE KEPT  AND CARRIED  TWO  BOXES OUT OF THE THREE  BOXES  OF GOLD  AND TOOK  IT  TO A SECURITY COMPANY  IN ACCRA, THE  CAPITAL CITY  OF  GHANA  AND  DEPOSITED IT  THERE AS  A  FAMILY TREASURE.

AFTER  MY  FATHER’S  BURIAL  WHICH  LASTED  FROM MONDAY, 21ST   TILL THURSDAY ,25TH MARCH 2009,THE MEMBERS OF HIS EXTENDED FAMILY CAME TOGETHER AND SHARED EVERYTHING HE HAD IN HIS WILL EXCEPT THE TWO BOXES OF GOLD(200KG) WHICH I DEPOSITED IN SECURITY COMPANY IN ACCRA, GHANA.NOW, WHAT I WANT  FROM  YOU  IS  FOR  YOU  TO  HELP ME AND FLY DOWN TO GHANA AND PAY THE CHARGES TO THE SECURITY COMPANY AND SHIP  THE GOLD TO YOUR COUNTRY FOR SELLING OF THIS GOLD.

IF  YOU  HAVE ANY  INTEREST  IN HELPING  ME , YOU SHOULD  CONTACT  ME ON THIS MY PRIVATE E-MAIL ADDRESS: maxwell1poku@royal.net  SO THAT WE CAN DISCUSS  ABOUT THE PERCENTAGE  AND OTHER  THINGS.THIS BUSINESS  IS RISK FREE  BUT  HAS TO KEPT CONFIDENTIAL BECAUSE OF THE EXTENDED MEMBERS OF OUR FAMILY.
THANKS AND GOD BLESS.

YOURS  TRULY

MAXWELL POKU

Any takers?

The New Cold War

The Copenhagen summit continues to mesmerize me. While it was on, it was hugely entertaining. Now that it is over, the dramatic final day’s play has clearly, without any ambiguities, signaled the start of a new Cold War, with China taking the place vacated by the USSR twenty years back.

Fifteen years ago, Boutros-Ghali, then my boss, said that the main challenge for the international system was to work out a counterbalance to US power that could replace the collapsed Soviet Union. In the early 1990s, idealists hoped for the emergence of the UN as the countervailing force and European optimists saw the EU playing this role. For nearly two decades no solution was in sight.

We now know the answer. China has taken on the role of the counterweight to the US behemoth at the other end of the global see-saw. That is what happened at Copenhagen where China made its debut as a superpower.

- When Two’s Company, Nitin Desai, The Times of India, 4 Jan 2010

If you find this hard to believe, here is proof that Copenhagen was not about climate change but really about a new Cold War:

To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it was China’s representative who insisted that industrialised country targets, previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. “Why can’t we even mention our own targets?” demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia’s prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil’s representative too pointed out the illogicality of China’s position. Why should rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get the blame for the Copenhagen accord’s lack of ambition.

- How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room The Guardian, 22 Dec 2009

Round one to China. Clearly they have got under the skin of the developed nations. And these developed nations will have to do more than just behave badly in order to balance China.

Furthermore, this specific article in the Guardian announced the return of a cold war staple tactic – propaganda!

On a different note: banging of microphones, throwing up hands in despair…such theatrics. What happened to the good old charm offensive I wonder? And dictionary.com defines “diplomatic” as “skilled in dealing with sensitive matters or people; tactful”. Some training programs are in order, I guess.

Of the doofus, by the doofus, for the doofus

Believe it or not, these two movies faced off against each other last week.

We had no trouble choosing which one we wanted to see. We prefer to see movies about real people. Vanara Sainya is such old hat in this part of the world.

Three out of our family of four thoroughly enjoyed the movie about a street-smart Sardar building a brand (Rocket Sales Corporation) on the sly. As an added bonus, the movie opened with the most riveting opening credits I have ever seen.

Only my nine-year old son was bored out of his wits. He surely would have preferred the movie of nine-year olds, by nine-year olds, for nine-year olds!

Climate Change or Changing International Climate?

The COP 15 Summit at Copenhagen has been absolutely riveting, but the final act has become a real farce.

The President of the United States steps in at the last minutes, tries to bully China (he has already soft talked India into offering a 25% voluntary emission intensity reduction) and when that fails (there is a limit to how much you can bully your biggest creditor), takes whatever is on the table and declares “historic breakthrough achieved” and walks away. On the side, the US also takes credit for a $100 Billion fund (which by the way is a multi-lateral fund to which the actual US contribution by 2012 is expected to be 3.6 Billion as opposed to 10.6 Billion from the EU and 11 Billion from Japan!).

What exactly is going on here? Multiple things:

• The power balance which has been shifting towards the East (Twilight of Pax Americana) has been highlighted once again by India and China refusing to let go of the Kyoto protocol (which propounded the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities for developed and developing nations, with binding emission reduction targets only for developed nations).

• While China provided the leadership for the developing nations, the developed nations were led by the EU, with Denmark, as the host nation, taking the lead on behalf of the EU (albeit in a ham handed fashion). The USA was AWOL.

• The weakening of US clout which started with the financial sector meltdown in Sep 2008 (or even earlier with Bush Jr. unilateral invasion of Iraq) has been highlighted by the utter irrelevance of USA to these discussions. While real clout has declined, illusions of grandeur still persist, resulting in hollow posturing by the American President - fly-in in the last minute, use the bully pulpit, hold some meaningless meetings and irrespective of results, simply declare victory.

As for climate changes, these pols have realized the basic truth – since the last ice age, the globe has been warming. We cannot expect it to stop now just because the current temperature (with a tolerance of plus 2 degrees) suits us. Amen.